A method to estimate the demand for freight transport in absence of historical data. A case study of the Oder Waterway

Abstract

The aim of the research described in this article is to work out a method to estimate the demand for freight transport in a situation when no historical data are available, thus rendering it impossible to apply methods based on time series data. The method presented in this article was developed and verified on the basis of an analysis of potential inland shipping operations on the Oder Waterway to/from the seaports in Szczecin and Świnoujście, assuming that the waterway has been upgraded to navigability class III. The analysis was predicated on a demand survey performed among cargo shippers. The obtained research results made it possible to specify the advantages and drawbacks of forecasting based on qualitative methods, and to identify the factors which significantly reduce the reliability of freight transport forecasts.