Connecting low-redshift LISA massive black hole mergers to the nHz stochastic gravitational wave background

Abstract

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments worldwide recently reported evidence of a nHz stochastic gravitational wave background (sGWB) compatible with the existence of slowly inspiralling massive black hole (MBH) binaries (MBHBs). The shape of the signal contains valuable information about the evolution of z < 1 MBHs above 108 M⊙, suggesting a faster dynamical evolution of MBHBs towards the gravitational-wave-driven inspiral or a larger MBH growth than usually assumed. In this work, we investigate if the nHz sGWB could also provide constraints on the population of merging lower-mass MBHBs (< 107 M⊙) detectable by LISA. To this end, we use the L-Galaxies semi-analytical model applied to the Millennium suite of simulations. We generate a population of MBHs compatible simultaneously with current electromagnetic and nHz sGWB constraints by including the possibility that, in favourable environments, MBHs can accrete gas beyond the Eddington limit. The predictions of this new model for the sGWB show that the global (integrated up to high-z) LISA detection rate is not significantly affected when compared to a fiducial model whose nHz sGWB signal is ∼2 times smaller. In both cases, the global rate yields ∼12 yr−1 and is dominated by systems of 105 − 6 M⊙. The main differences are limited to low-z (z < 3), high-mass (> 106 M⊙) LISA MBHBs. The model compatible with the latest PTA results predicts up to ∼1.6 times more detections, with a rate of ∼1 yr−1. We find that these LISA MBHB systems have 50% probability of shining with bolometric luminosities > 1043 erg s−1. Hence, in case PTA results are confirmed and given the current MBH modelling, our findings suggest there will be higher chances to perform multimessenger studies with LISA MBHB than previously expected.