On the use of free code tools to simulate the propagation of radiation following dirty bomb explosions in sensible contexts

Abstract

The current geopolitical situation suggests an increasing possibility of radiological dispersal device attacks on sensitive targets. Consequently, understanding the transport of radiation over great distances in a short time can help first responders and decision makers in effectively managing emergencies. By utilizing open-source computational codes, intentional releases of radioactive material and their transmission from person to person can be simulated to provide first responders and decision makers with a rapid tool to facilitate their work. In this study, the HotSpot code was employed to simulate two releases of Cs-137 resulting from the detonation of a dirty bomb in a major city and near an aqueduct waterworks. Additionally, the STEM code was used to simulate radiation propagation from the initially affected individuals, drawing comparisons to the vectors of viral infections. This approach allowed to compare the outcomes of a scenario involving many individuals in an urban setting with another scenario having fewer individuals but posing the risk of contaminating critical infrastructure. The results showed that both scenarios had similar relatively mild health consequences for the population, despite their considerable differences and variations in the analyzed timelines. However, both scenarios present numerous challenges in emergency management. In the first case, the incident generates widespread panic and media frenzy. In the second case, the dissemination of radiation and potential public unawareness must be taken into account. Addressing these considerations needs the involvement of multiple stakeholders, including police, firefighters, healthcare professionals, journalists, politicians, and others, in emergency management efforts.