The Specific Bias in Dynamic Monte Carlo Simulations of Nuclear Reactor

Abstract

During the development of Monte-Carlo-based dynamic code system, we have encountered two major Monte-Carlo-specific problems. One is the break down due to “false super-criticality” which is caused by an accidentally large eigenvalue due to statistical error in spite of the fact that the reactor is actually not. The other problem, which is the main topic in this paper, is that the statistical error in power level using the reactivity calculated with Monte Carlo code is not symmetric about its mean but always positively biased. This signifies that the bias is accumulated as the calculation proceeds and consequently results in over-estimation of the final power level. It should be noted that the bias will not eliminated by refining time step as long as the variance is not zero. A preliminary investigation on this matter using the one-group-precursor point kinetic equations was made and it was concluded that the bias in power level is approximately proportional to the product of variance in Monte Carlo calculation and elapsed time. This conclusion was verified with some numerical experiments. This outcome is important in quantifying the required precision of the Monte-Carlo-based reactivity calculations.