Prediction of shoreline change using a numerical model: case of the Kulon Progo Coast, Central Java

Abstract

Kulon Progo Airport is an airport development project located in the coastal area near Yogyakarta, Indonesia, which is expected to complete in 2019. With the increase in population, huge land acquisition will be difficult, so the development of coastal areas for the airport became inevitable. Kulon Progo is located in the disaster-prone zone area of the earthquake and tsunami, the airport design must consider the risk management and mitigation from tsunami and earthquake disaster. Although the airport is already calculated the danger of earthquake and tsunami, the development of the coastal area also needs to consider the danger of the natural coastal process itself such as sedimentation and erosion. Shoreline changes due to the new infrastructure in the coastal area can disrupt the equilibrium of coastal process especially the longshore sediment transport. A satellite image shows that Kulon Progo shoreline retreats over 60 meters due to the heavy sediment longshore transport in the past 10 years. Breakwaters in Tanjung Adikarto fishing port also made a great contribution in huge sedimentation behind the infrastructure up to 90 meters. This research will conduct an analysis trough satellite and numerical model to observe the shoreline changes along Kulon Progo Coast. A numerical model shows a high erosion rate along the coast. High sedimentation also observed at the river mouth of Bogowonto and Serang Rivers.