Heat demand model for district heating simulation

Abstract

Demand for affordable and sustainable energy is growing. Even though the technology of construction and insulation of buildings is continuously improving, heating is still a significant issue for large part of Europe. Building modern heating systems as well as upgrading existing ones requires incorporating new technology and smart control systems with sophisticated control algorithms. An essential part of the control systems are models that allow the simulation to verify proposed actions or use series of simulation experiments to find the optimal solution. Several simulation tools are specializing in the field of energy already, and some general tools can also be used. This article shows two methods of own prediction mechanism of the heat demand of individual consumers (buildings). Modelling of individual buildings is the basis of the simulation model of district heating which is being developed. The fundamental idea is to build a modular model for specific district heating and start from the endpoints - from the individual consumption objects that will be interconnected through the distribution model with other parts of district heating system such as other consumers and producers. It is assumed that the heat demand is the most challenging part of the prediction, and therefore the accuracy and quality of these models will be the most significant to the accuracy of the entire future result.