Comparison of accuracy of forecasting methods of convective precipitation

Abstract

This article is focused on the comparison of the accuracy of quantitative, numerical, statistical and nowcasting forecasting methods of convective precipitation including three flood events that occurred in the Zlin region in the years 2015 - 2017. Quantitative prediction is applied to the Algorithm of Storm Prediction for outputs “The probability of convective precipitation and The statistical forecast of convective precipitation”. The quantitative prediction of the probability of convective precipitation is primarily compared with the precipitation forecasts calculated by publicly available NWP models; secondary to statistical and nowcasting predictions. The statistical prediction is computed on the historical selection criteria and is intended as a complementary prediction to the first algorithm output. The nowcasting prediction operates with radar precipitation measurements, specifically with X-band meteorological radar outputs of the Zlín Region. Compared forecasting methods are used for the purposes of verification and configuration prediction parameters for accuracy increase of algorithm outputs.