A simulation-based DEA approach for multiple criteria decision-making problems with uncertain mixed-criteria values

Abstract

In ex-ante decision scenarios, predicting criterion values accurately is difficult for decision makers (DMs). Inconsiderable work is normally required for measuring criteria by uncertain random values or ordinal values. However, in the classical data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, criterion values are the constants that limit the application of the classical DEA model in ex-ante decision scenarios. This paper presents a simulation-based DEA approach, which captures random and ordinal criterion values by a simple and direct simulation-based approach. The approach includes three steps. In the first step, Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to convert uncertain random values or ordinal values into cardinal data. In the second step, we use traditional DEA methods to compute the efficiency score of decision-making units (DMUs). In the third step, we ranked all DMUs by calculating the DEA-efficient acceptability of each DMU in multiple simulations and then selected the optimal DMU. The proposed approach is illustrated by experimental examples and a case study of a municipal wastewater treatment system.