Probabilistic Assessment for Failure Probability of Pipe Lines by Extreme Value Distribution

Abstract

This study presents a probabilistic methodology for estimation of the remaining life of pressurized pipelines containing active corrosion defects. A reliability assessment was carried out using extreme value distribution of the corroded defects instead of the already published failure pressure model like NG18 or ASME B31G. The failure probability of pipelines depends on the number of corroded defects, and it was calculated directly as the area exceeded a defined LV(Limited Value of corrosion depth). The remaining life of pressurized pipelines can also be estimated by the PDF of extreme value distribution as calculating the exceeded area with a defined failure probability.