Reliability Calculation Method for Natural Gas Pipelines with Girth Weld Defects Identified through In-Line Inspection

Abstract

To introduce a method for reliability analysis of China's large-scale natural gas pipeline system, one should first have a method to calculate the reliability of pipe segments, compressors, valves, and other factors. This article models the rules prescribed in BS7910-2013, a guide to methods for assessing the acceptability of flaws in metallic structures, and combines pipeline reliability assessments from CSA Z662-2015 to present a method (based on the Monte Carlo method) to calculate the failure probability/reliability of long-distance pipelines containing a large number of girth weld defects. The method involves the destruction of plastic material, brittle fracture failure analysis, consideration of the division of units by using pipeline area classes for calculation, and reliability index analysis. The results of a magnetic flux leakage (MFL) in-line inspection (ILI) of a defective girth weld from a section of a pipeline in China are used to demonstrate how to determine the reliability of the entire pipeline.