Analysis on Emission Reduction Targets of Carbon Dioxide in China

Abstract

This paper is to study the possibility of emission reduction targets to be achieved. With Tapio decoupling model, the decoupling relationship of 30 provinces in 11th Five-Year Plan is studied. Taking the carbon intensity in 2005 (reduction benchmark), the growth rate of GDP and decoupling elasticity value as indicators, all provinces are clustered into five types of regions. Then the carbon intensity of every region in 2020 is predicted. Some useful results are presented. The growth rate of GDP has no direct impact on the realization of emission reduction targets. The higher reduction benchmark does not restrict the success of emission reduction targets. The region with higher reduction benchmark is much easier to achieve in lowering carbon intensity than the region with lower one. Without powerful relevant policy, the region with lower reduction benchmark and higher decoupling elasticity value is difficult in achieving the emission reduction targets.