Seismic Mortality Estimation in China: A Comparison of Three Empirical Models

Abstract

Earthquake is common but one of the major natural disasters that cause heavy casualties in the world. In China, half of the deaths caused by natural disasters were brought by earthquakes since 1950. Undertaking effective relief operations when an earthquake strikes is important not only for life saving but also for the sustainable development of the affected area. Estimation of seismic mortality is an important part of relief operation. Based on the analysis of existing seismic mortality estimation models, the paper compares three empirical models of estimating the deaths caused by four earthquakes in China, discovers large errors in the models, and proposes that the models should be improved to meet the needs of emergency rescue. The paper also discusses factors that affect model precision and makes some suggestions on how to improve these empirical models.