Study of Project Duration Risk in the Network Diagram Based on Matrix Algorithm

Abstract

The probable route sets in the network diagram were calculated by adjacency matrix method, and based on the assumption that activity becoming the key obeyed 0-1 distribution, a probable route matrix was established. A random variable matrix was structed by monte carlo simulation under condition of activity time independent distribution. A matrix algorithm model was built by isolating activity times impact on activity becoming the key for the first time. This model with a simple and optimal algorithm avoided the computation complexity of network planning time parameter, to evaluate project duration risk rapidly and statistical analyze the probability of activity becoming the key and the influence degree of activity time fluctuation impacting on project duration, providing theoretical and data support for decisions. Empirical research on a tunnel engineering project verified its practicability and feasibility, providing a new powerful tool for assessing project duration risk in the network diagram quickly.