Simple Correlation Models for Estimation of Horizontal Global Solar Radiation for Oran, Northwest Algeria

Author:

Aoun Nouar1,Bouchouicha Kada1

Affiliation:

1. Centre of Development of Renewable Energies, CDER

Abstract

In the literature, several correlation models have been developed to predict solar radiation on horizontal surfaces. In this paper, the daily solar radiation data and sunshine duration data measured during the period of 2006-2010, were used to calculate the monthly mean values of daily total solar radiation using five modified Angstrom–Prescott model and three day of the year based empirical models of Oran city (35°42 N and 00°36 W) in Algeria. Furthermore, those modified models are compared with three existing models. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the models, the statistical testing error such as R2, RMSE, rRMSE, MAPE and MBE are used. According to statistical test results and from the sunshine duration models, the polynomial model (#4) showed the best estimation results with a coefficient of determination R2=0.991, rRMSE=4.129%, and MAPE=3.635%. Furthermore, the accurate model from the day of the year models is the model (7), with R2=0.987, rRMSE=4.067%, and MAPE=3.5194%. Moreover, this paper finds that the best accuracy model to estimate the monthly mean daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Oran city is the sine and cosine wave trigonometric model (#7).

Publisher

Trans Tech Publications, Ltd.

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