Recent Evolution and Future Prediction of the Delta at the Yangtze River Mouth

Abstract

In this study, an empirical curve describing the relation between erosion and deposition rate and water/sediment discharge was developed based on the recent evolution trend of the submerged delta at the Yangtze River Mouth, and the one-dimensional mathematical model for unsteady water-and sediment-transport was calibrated using the water and sediment discharge data after water impounding to predict the water and sediment discharge for the future 10 years and the future evolution of the submerged delta at the Yangtze River Mouth. The results showed that the 10 m and 20 m isobaths areas of the submerged delta changed with the water and sediment discharge from siltation to siltation slowing down to erosion. Siltation increased with large amount of rain received by the watershed during 1997-2000, while continuous retreat of erosion happened during 2000-2009. Using the one-dimensional mathematical model for river water and sediment calibrated and tested with data collected after impounding, the water and sediment discharges were calculated for Series 60 and 90, and its evolution in 2013-2022 was predicted for the delta. For Series 60, its 10 cm and 20 cm isobaths areas showed alternative scour and siltation, while the delta showed trends of erosion. For Series 90, its 10 m and 20 m isobaths showed substantial siltation in flood years. The water and sediment discharges since the Three Gorges Reservoirs was filled were lower than the calculated results for both Series 60 and 90. If the water and sediment discharges continue to decease, the delta will take an erosion trend.