An Application of AHP and FAHP on the Model Prediction

Abstract

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are important methods in model prediction. In this paper, a case concerning in how to estimate the serial criminal’s next possible crime location is researched. Two models are devised to determine the “geographical profile” of a suspected serial criminal. Model 1 is proposed that we use the AHP and consider many factors which may influence a criminal to choose his next crime location. Model 2 is an improvement of Model 1. It is a combination of the FAHP and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Theory (FCET). And it overcomes the difficulty of dealing with uncertain factors, which model 1 cannot work. In the end, performances of the above models are analyzed.