Extrapolating Validation Using Bayesian Networks with Interval Probabilities

Abstract

This paper develops a model validation method in the case of the full scale tests for the system model are infeasible. The Bayesian network with uncertain conditional probability parameters is used to represent the relations between the large computational model and its smaller modules. The interval probability theory is adopted to extrapolate the posterior probability of the interested variable in the uncertain Bayesian network. An interval valued Bayes factor is obtained to be the metric for model validation.