Improvement the Largest Lyapunov Exponent for Measurement the Northeast Monsoon Prediction

Abstract

Thailand is an agricultural country. So that, the water resources are important. The water management is very important for keep the water used in necessary time. The monsoon is causes a heavy rain. So that, the monsoon prediction by the global climate model is important. The accuracy of the forecasts by the predictability measurement method is very important. In this research, the northeast monsoon prediction in Thailand by the global climate model. The data from The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), University of Bergen, Norway. The global climate model is Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Version 2.0 (BCCR-BCM2.0) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) are used. The largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) is the predictability measurement method for verify the efficiency of the global climate model and improvement the LLE by limit theorems. The result to show that the improvement the LLE by limit theorems can be measure the accuracy of the northeast monsoon prediction in Thailand by the global climate model are suitable.