Affiliation:
1. Ladoke Akintola University of Technology
2. Southern Illinois University
Abstract
The study presents a mathematical approach of safety policy in terms of safety target and budget implementation factor. System dynamics were used to develop a hybrid model of accident occurrence and preventions in terms of pre-safety programme accidents, budgeting factor, proportion of budget to be implemented, strategy effectiveness index, workforce, accident proneness factor, prevented accidents, accident reduction target, probability parameter and estimated cost of accident. Hence, a cost savings/loss model was derived in terms of the identified parameters. Proportion of budget to be implemented (P) and accident reduction target (T) are the input policy parameters. At proportion of planned budget below P = 0.6 showed that the budget would not be enough to reduce any accident nor save any cost. Thus, throughout the simulation period, a minimum monetary savings of N10.775 millions was achieved at P=1 and T=10% and highest monetary savings of N36.955millions was achieved at and T=25%.
Publisher
Trans Tech Publications, Ltd.
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