Grain Emergency Transport Model on Unascertained Number

Abstract

The question to choose a grain supplement emergency path is uncertain. By using uncertain methods, integration of experts can be done. Base on the uncertain theory, we build the model of choosing a path with minimum risk in the process of grain emergency transportation and the algorithm. Firstly, estimate every path in the net to get the unascertained numbers of experts. Then, the unascertained number of experts with the uncertain operate rule is computed. Thirdly, the expectation and reliability of its unascertained number can be gotten. At last, get the minimum risk path by operate the expectation and the experiential value. This model has certain rationality and validity by data test.