Optimal Combined Forecasting Method for Foreign Workers in Chiangmai

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the performance of combination method for forecasting the foreign workers in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The forecasting performance is compare among six combination method. i.e., Simple Average method (AVG), Variance-Covariance method (VAR), Harmonic Mean method (HARM), Simple Average Control (AVG-C) , Variance-Covariance Control method (VAR-C) and Harmonic Mean Control method (HARM-C). The results suggest that, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of the Variance-Covariance Control method (VAR-C) are the lowest. The Variance-Covariance Control method was optimal for forecasting the foreign workers in Chiang Mai, Thailand.