Assessing the Influence of Shale Gas Boom on China’s Power Sector and Environmental Policy by Modeling

Abstract

As the U.S shale gas revolution evolved, there was a growing expectation that this can be replicated in China. Power sector, as the biggest contributor to China’s primary energy consumption and CO2emission, is faced with tremendous pressure and challenge. Shale gas resource will be a big opportunity for power sector to alleviate energy shortage and emission problem. This study is trying to figure out to what extent will future large gas supplies improve China’s energy structure and under which policy will the change be more efficient and cost-effective. Regarding the task, two scenarios are set up here: Base Case, Coal price rising and carbon emission control scenario. Based on the comparison of these scenarios, detailed conclusions for policy decision are drawn up.