Fault Tree Analysis of “Mistakes, Forgetfulness, and Negligence” Accidents in ATC

Abstract

The "mistakes, forgetfulness, and negligence" accidents in Air Traffic Control (ATC) have a great impact on flight safety. On the basis of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), the paper established the "mistakes, forgetfulness, and negligence" accidents in ATC fault tree, obtained all the minimal cut sets, and qualitatively analyzed the cause of accidents. According to survey data, the paper calculated the probability of the top event, as well as the probability importance degree coefficients and critical importance degree coefficients of basic events, and quantitatively analyzed the cause of accidents. The results show that the weak sense of responsibility, poor safety awareness, unsound rules and regulations, inadequate enforcement of rules and regulations, and high control office noise are the main factors leading to the accident. The paper provides ATC units with recommendations to establish solutions to "mistakes, forgetfulness, and negligence" accidents in ATC.