A Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Model in Dam Safety Monitoring

Author:

Hou Rui Lian1,Gao Hu2,Li Hui2

Affiliation:

1. Shandong Polytechnic University

2. Zaozhuang Vocational College of Science and Technology

Abstract

Based on the new time series analysis and the theory of dam safety, this paper proposed a new forecasting model in dam safety monitoring. First the paper introduced basic method of flat forecast and described its algorithm routine, and explained what is time series. Second the model structure of monitoring system based on time series analysis was given through the analysis of the method. The system can provide the comparison chart of the measured data, forecast data and trends. At last the model was realized based on VB and tested by the actual data. Experimental results show that this forecasting model has better prediction results in dam safety monitoring.

Publisher

Trans Tech Publications, Ltd.

Subject

General Engineering

Reference12 articles.

1. Ruilian Hou, Zhifang Jiang, in: design of the urban ambient air quality monitoring network and early warning system, Computer Applications [J], pp.177-179, October (2003).

2. Wang Shijun. Reservoir dam safety monitoring automation technology [M] . Beijing: ministry of water resources of dam safety management center, (2006).

3. Wang Bende Zhou Huicheng, Wang Guoli. Reservoir dynamic control theory and method and its application [M]. Beijing: China water conservancy and hydropower press, (2006).

4. Xiangjun Dong, Fengrong Sun, Xiqing Han and Ruilian Hou. in: Study of Positive and Negative Association Rules based on Multi-confidence and Chi-squared test, ADMA06, Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science series, accepted, 2006.

5. Xuelian JIANG, Situ Zhong, The design and realization of U disk controller based on single-chip computer, Machine Development. Guangzhou, vol 34, pp.79-81, April (2005).

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