The Analysis and Forecasting Model of the Energy Supply and Demand in Jiangxi Province

Author:

Wu Yuan Zhuo1,Xu Qun2,Fu Chun2,Liu Lei2

Affiliation:

1. Abertay University of Dundee

2. Nanchang University

Abstract

Abstract: Model which depends on historical data of Jiangxi Province ,grey system and Brown nonlinearity exponential smoothing has been constructed, then the paper uses of MATLAB software integration to calculate parameters, precision testing and result graphical output process to program the forecasting model .By establishing the future energy combination forecasting model of Jiangxi province with the standard deviation method, it can predict the energy gap of Jiangxi Province in following 12 year. The result shows that the whole energy gap will reach 561.206 million tons tce in 2009-2020.

Publisher

Trans Tech Publications, Ltd.

Reference7 articles.

1. Deng Julong. 1987. Basic Method of Gray System. Wuhan: Huazhong Polytechnic University Press (in Chinese).

2. Xiao Tingyan. The practical technology and application of forecasting . Wuhan: Huazhong Polytechnic University Press (in Chinese)., (1993).

3. Jiangxi Statistical Bureau . Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook. The Statistic Year Book of China, 1986~(2009).

4. Xue Dingyu, Chen Yangquan. Using MATLAB to Solve Advanced Applied Mathematics Problems. Tsinghua University Press.

5. Gao Xincai , Wu Yanpeng. The Construction of Combination Forecasting Model in Chinese Energy Consumption System[J] Statistics and Decision, 2009, , (5):28~29.

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