ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS THAT MAY BE EFFECTIVE ON HOUSING PRICES IN TURKEY WITH ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

Market participants can see alternative investment instruments, which are considered effective in financial markets, as investment opportunities in order to maximize the return and minimize the risks. In this context, the aim of the study is to analyse the causal relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic indicators after the 2008 Mortgage housing crisis with econometric methods for Turkey. In the study, the dependent variable was determined as housing prices and the independent variables as gross domestic product, inflation and exchange rate. Data covering the period 2010Q1-2021Q1 were used in the analysis performed with the ARDL limit test. As a result of the analysis, a same-sided relationship was found between housing prices and the dollar exchange rate in the long run. Further, it was observed that there is an inverse relationship between housing prices, inflation and GDP in the long run. The short-term results of the analysis showed parallelism with the long-term results, and the inverse relationship between house prices, inflation and GDP was also revealed in the short term. The findings show that inflation, GDP and dollar exchange rates are effective on housing prices for Turkey.