Investigation of the probability of steel castings shortage at the stage of blanks production

Abstract

Problem statement and the research purpose. Now the development of methods of the technological process modeling for production preparation in the life cycle of mechanical engineering products is an actual task. Forecasting the main indicators of reliability and operational characteristics of mechanical engineering products is a priority characteristic of functionally-oriented technologies. In particular, using the mathematical apparatus of Markov chains during the development of technological processes for the production of blanks, it is possible to predict the production of steel blooms without defects and correct the terms of casting processes. Methodology of the study. The experimental results were processed according to the proposed methodology for the blanks production stage. The system of Kolmogorov–Chapman differential equations describes the created reliability flowchart and technological graph of reliability for the stage of procurement production of steel blooms. Results of the investigations. Mathematical and graphical dependencies for forecasting the probability of production without a shortage of steel blooms at a metallurgical enterprise were obtained based on the solution of a system of differential equations. Scientific novelty. The article presents an example of the optimization synthesis of the model of the casting process of steel blooms and the determined time interval with the most likely shortage of blanks. It was established that for the defined production conditions, the probability of failure is realized in a multiple of 4 (27 days) relative to the most likely term of repeated shortage over time for steel melting (109 days). Practical value of the results. The proposed technique can be effectively used during the development of technological processes for blanks production of machine parts at the technological preparation stage of production. Scopes of further investigations on the subject of the paper. Further research can be aimed at improving the proposed methodology and extending it to a wider range of materials in the process of castings manufacturing.