Institutional Capacity and Control of Legitimate Birth Rate in Siberian Regions

Abstract

The research featured the decline of legitimate birth rate in the context of the transformation that family institution is currently undergoing. According to the Demography National project of the Russian Federation, the key objective of the national demographic policy is to increase the number of children up to 1.7 per woman. The authors believe that it is impossible to achieve the target indicator without revealing the institutional capacity of the so-called traditional family, which has a lower the level of birth control by abortion and contraception. In order to determine the institutional capacity of the national project, the authors estimated the legitimate birth rate and the level of birth control by the population. The methods involved the Coale-Trussell’s model, which is based on the assumption that controlled birth rate deviates from natural birth rate. The study was based on the data about the number of births in 2017. The data were obtained from twelve Siberian regions and included such information as maternal age and legitimacy. The Coale-Trussell’s model revealed a good institutional capacity that can enhance the demographic function of the family and increase the birth rate.