Practical Sales Forecasting: Potential Solutions for Independently Owned Hotels

Abstract

In 2013, 80% of the total hotel closures in the US were independently owned hotel properties. The impact of external factors coupled with the inability of independently owned properties to adapt quickly to a complex operating environment results in high uncertainty of future operations and reduced competitiveness. However, the preservation of this sector is a necessary condition for the lodging industry given that 49% of the worldwide room supply is independently owned and managed. Therefore, the primary objectives of this research study are to increase awareness and the need for research regarding the importance of the independently owned hotel sector and to provide managers of these properties with forecasting tools that may enhance hotels' competitiveness. The operational challenges of independently hotels are unique as well as their needs. Accordingly, potential challenges of these properties are reviewed to stress the need for forecasting and to determine tools that are reliable and at the same time account for the challenges unique to independent hotels. The comparison of strengths and weaknesses of commonly used forecasting tools shows that time series models may be both reliable and practical for the managers of independently owned hotels to use.