Import dependency of the Russian civil aviation industry: Development prospects in the light of “Sanctions 2022”

Abstract

Sanctions and restrictions by “unfriendly countries” in February-March 2022 affected many areas of the Russian economy. The article discusses the possible consequences of sanctions for Russian aviation and the aviation industry in terms of the problem of overcoming dependency on imports and the potential for transition to long-term development based on an import substitution strategy. Data on the structure of the aircraft fleet of the largest Russian companies are presented, and a conclusion is made about the critical dependency of most of them on import supplies and services. The historical development of the domestic aviation industry in the post-Soviet period is shown, the conclusion is made about the choice of a strategy for international cooperation, including in connection with the use of the advantages of “catch-up development” on the basis of the strategy of “market fundamentalism”, within the framework of the “Ideologeme of Philippe Aghion”. The predominance of foreign-made liners in the flight fleet of Russian companies is explained by the significant opportunities for the acquisition of new airliners through leasing schemes by Russian air carriers, the lack of a strategy for independence from imports of domestic aviation companies in the period up to 2014, and an emphasis on the priority renewal of the aircraft fleet by Russian airlines. The history of the development of two models of domestic aircrafts -Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MS-21, and the difficulties associated with the orientation of companies towards the production of military aircrafts, especially in the light of sectoral sanctions, are discussed. Based on an analysis of the development of the aviation industry in Russia in 2014-2022, the difficulty of abandoning international cooperation in the production of civil aircraft is stated. Despite the adoption of the Sectoral Plan of Measures for Import Substitution in the Civil Aircraft Industry of the Russian Federation, in fact, the goal of reducing import dependency was not achieved. The prospects for the proposed measures in the field of import substitution in the new conditions are discussed, in particular in relation to the production of Russian aircraft engines. Despite partial success, the work on certification of domestic PD-8 and PD-14 engines is still far from industrial development. The complexity of implementing the autarchy strategy for the development of a competitive Russian aviation industry in the medium term is shown. It is noted that in the medium term, in the conditions of a tough version of the current sanctions, the civil aircraft industry is waiting for a difficult path with “self-reliance”.