Computer modeling based on a neural network as a tool for obtaining criminologically significant information on assessing the state of crime: based on the materials of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to obtain the missing information related to the assessment of the degree of influence of changes in some socio-economic factors on the state of crime and its individual manifestations. The motivation for the study is related to the initiative of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym Jomart Tokayev to increase the minimum wage. The justification for the increase in the minimum wage was a calculation that showed an increase in gross domestic product by 1.5%. The method of research is computer modeling based on the functioning of a neural network. The creation and training of the neural network was based on official statistical data of the Republic of Kazakhstan. At the initial stage of the study, the effectiveness of the chosen method was tested in comparison with other methods of information processing and analysis. The test showed a higher accuracy of calculation using a computer neural network. The dependence of changes in the minimum wage with an increase in gross domestic product and a decrease in the crime rate was confirmed. At the next, main stage of the study, there was a need to improve the neural network by optimizing the input matrix intended for training. Optimization lies in the fact that the learning matrix was formed by those values of socio-economic parameters, the impact of which on the level of crime and crime associated with manifestations of terrorism and extremism is maximal. Test comparisons of calculation results using neural network training optimization showed more accurate data compared to standard neural network training. Using a more advanced neural network, modeling of the expanded impact of changes in the minimum wage on the level of crime and criminal activity of an extremist and terrorist nature was carried out. The simulation results showed that the dependence of changes in the crime rate on changes in the minimum wage has a more complex nature of influence, in which it is important to determine its optimal value. The increase in the minimum wage has practically no effect on crimes of special gravity. They can mitigate the manifestations of peak activity of crimes of particular severity, but they do not have a significant impact on this type of crime. The research group notes the universality of the described software tools. Its application can be significantly expanded and used in various applications related to law enforcement. The authors declare no conflicts of interests.