Mastering Results for Passenger Transportation on Moscow — St. Petersburg Direction in Crisis 2020-2021

Abstract

Purpose: To show mastering results for passenger transportation by rail and air kinds of transport on Moscow — St. Petersburg direction including ones at crisis 2020–2021, in particular: to analyze the dynamics of changes in passenger traffic of Sapsan trains and air traffic on Moscow — St. Petersburg route as well as of air passenger traffic of domestic air lines of Pulkovo Airport in pre-Covid, Covid and post-Covid periods; to develop mathematical model for passenger traffic forecast. Methods: Regression analysis. Results: The dynamics of passenger traffic changes of railway and air kinds of transport on Moscow-St. Petersburg direction for 2010 to 2019 period has been shown; mathematical model to forecast passenger traffic of being considered kinds of transport till 2022 has been developed; the tendencies for passenger traffic statistical data changes at Covid and post-Covid periods in comparison with expected (forecasted) values have been studied. Practical significance: Conclusion about the expediency of research continuation on passenger traffic forecast in unstable situation conditions in the country and the world as well as in the conditions of strong concurrence between being considered kinds of transport on Moscow — St. Petersburg direction has been made. The analysis results can be recommended for practical use.