The Modeling and Optimization of a Multi-dam System

Abstract

In this paper, we present a maintenance plan for the Kariba Dam in Africa. The Kariba Dam, a double curvature concrete arch dam in Zambia's capital, is crucial for regional energy and water management. Ensuring its safety and functionality is essential. This study provides a comprehensive analysis and maintenance plan to safeguard the dam's long-term viability. Our mathematical analysis begins with a threshold evaluation of three proposed options, considering costs such as relocation, dam removal, construction of new dams, repairs, and ecological damage, as well as benefits like energy generation, flood prevention, employment, tourism, and ecological protection. The data-driven analysis indicates that our option is the most economically viable. We assess water management capabilities, using them as a safety coefficient for the dams. We selected 30 seed points along the riverbank to establish dams. Our recommendation is to increase the number of dams and ensure their strategic distribution. An assessment model based on the analytic hierarchy process was then developed, focusing on three factors: safety, economy, and population. We determined the weights of each factor. The optimal scheme was identified through this model, and the sensitivity of the results was also evaluated. The greatest impact under extreme conditions was found. This paper provides the details of the theoretical analysis and the numerical experiments, which include the use of modeling, optimization, mathematical programming, and so on.