Framework for Examining the Correlation Between Trade Liberalization and Employment in Nigeria

Abstract

This research examines the relationship between trade liberalization and employment in Nigeria using a retrospective research approach. The study considers variables such as the employment rate, trade openness index, foreign direct investment, and currency exchange rate. The analytical framework combines classical linear regression and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics. Diagnostic tests, including descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Perron Unit Root Test, ARDL-Bound test, and Error Correction Model (ECM)-ARDL test, are conducted to analyze the collected data. The study utilizes secondary data from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (2018) covering the period from 1985 to 2018. The findings of the study are mixed. The error correction estimates indicate a negative relationship between the trade openness index and the employment rate. On the other hand, foreign direct investment shows a negative relationship with employment rate, but this relationship is not statistically significant. The exchange rate demonstrates a positive and significant correlation with the employment rate. It was recommended that, Diversifying Nigeria's economy by promoting domestic industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and services to create job opportunities and reduce import dependence. Implement effective labor market policies including job training, worker protections, and competitive labor market measures to mitigate negative impacts of trade liberalization on employment. Target FDI to sectors with high job creation potential, incentivizing investments, supporting technology transfer, and fostering partnerships for employment growth in Nigeria.