A novel score to predict shunt dependency after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

Abstract

OBJECTIVEFeasible clinical scores for predicting shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are scarce. The chronic hydrocephalus ensuing from SAH score (CHESS) was introduced in 2015 and has a high predictive value for SDHC. Although this score is easy to calculate, several early clinical and radiological factors are required. The authors designed the retrospective analysis described here for external CHESS validation and determination of predictive values for the radiographic Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) scoring system and a new simplified combined scoring system.METHODSConsecutive data of 314 patients with aSAH were retrospectively analyzed with respect to CHESS parameters and BNI score. A new score, the shunt dependency in aSAH (SDASH) score, was calculated from independent risk factors identified with multivariate analysis.RESULTSTwo hundred twenty-five patients survived the initial phase after the hemorrhage, and 27.1% of these patients developed SDHC. The SDASH score was developed from results of multivariate analysis, which revealed acute hydrocephalus (aHP), a BNI score of ≥ 3, and a Hunt and Hess (HH) grade of ≥ 4 to be independent risk factors for SDHC (ORs 5.709 [aHP], 6.804 [BNI], and 4.122 [HH]; p < 0.001). All 3 SDHC scores tested (CHESS, BNI, and SDASH) reliably predicted chronic hydrocephalus (ORs 1.533 [CHESS], 2.021 [BNI], and 2.496 [SDASH]; p ≤ 0.001). Areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for CHESS and SDASH were comparable (0.769 vs 0.785, respectively; p = 0.447), but the CHESS and SDASH scores were superior to the BNI grading system for predicting SDHC (BNI AUROC 0.649; p = 0.014 and 0.001, respectively). In contrast to CHESS and BNI scores, an increase in the SDASH score coincided with a monotonous increase in the risk of developing SDHC.CONCLUSIONSThe newly developed SDASH score is a reliable tool for predicting SDHC. It contains fewer factors and is more intuitive than existing scores that were shown to predict SDHC. A prospective score evaluation is needed.