Possibilities of application of ARIMA models in building forecast values of car-flows

Abstract

The current condition of developments in the field of estimating the unevenness of railway transportation in the field of solving the problems of efficiency of the organization of the transportation process with the use of landfill technologies is considered. Studying the problems of irregularities in the flow of cars, identifying the differences between unavoidable fluctuations from congestion or interruptions initiated by improper modes of movement with the need to eliminate, the creation of appropriate mechanisms to reduce unevenness can significantly optimize infrastructure use. The use of mathematical models of various kinds for formation of models of the forecast of change of car flows on railways is estimated. In particular, the method of time series allows you to build predictive models based on an array of data on car traffic. A comparative review of methods and means of forming forecast models of changes in car flows at the junctions of railways operating in a single technological space. The use of time series as a mathematical apparatus for constructing simulation models for forecasting wagon fluctuations and loading is estimated. Prospects for the use of simulation modeling as a tool for estimating the fluctuations of wagon flows at the junctions of railways with a single control center are considered. On the basis of the conducted analysis a number of directions of expansion of the existing methodological base of construction of simulation models of railway transportations is offered.