Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation

Author:

Handel Michael

Abstract

Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed.

Publisher

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Subject

Pharmacology (medical)

Reference84 articles.

1. Notes

2. 1 See plenary keynote presentation to the Technequality Conference (https://technequality-project.eu/files/michaelhandelprojectionspresentationbrusselsseminarpdf). For full program, see https://technequality-project.eu/files/scientificconferencetechnequality-finalprogrammlpdf and https://technequality-project.eu/news/technequality-virtual-scientific-conference-25-and-26-november-looking-back-successful-event.

3. 2 Norbert Wiener wrote, "It is perfectly obvious that ["automatic machines"] will produce an unemployment situation, in comparison with which the present recession and even the depression of the thirties will seem a pleasant joke." See Wiener, The human use of human beings: cybernetics and society (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1950), p.189. See also Gregory R. Woirol, The technological unemployment and structural unemployment debates (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1996); Amy Sue Bix, Inventing ourselves out of jobs? America's debate over technological unemployment, 1929-1981 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000); and Maxine Berg, The machinery question and the making of political economy, 1815-1848 (Cambridge University Press, 1980).

4. 3 See Automation and technological change: hearings before the Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, Congress of the United States, 84th Congress (U.S. Government Printing Office, 1955), https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/1956/12/report-970887a6-35a4-47e3-9bb0-c3cdf82ec429;

5. New views on automation: paper submitted to the Subcommittee on Automation and Energy Resources of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, 86th Congress (U.S. Government Printing Office, 1960), https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/1960/12/report-8e951d10-edf7-4102-8360-b95cd4fd0c92;

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