Nationally determined contributions-enhanced climate mitigation actions and safeguards (ECMAS) indicator framework for helping countries design sustainable and inclusive net-zero emissions reduction outcomes

Abstract

Global warming is unequivocal. The Paris Agreement requires that countries undertake a global stocktake beginning in 2023 at the 28th Conference of Parties to be held in Doha and every five years thereafter. Countries will demonstrate aggregate progression towards balancing greenhouse gases by sources and removals, adapting to the threats from climate change, the flow of climate finances, and contribution of achievement of sustainable development goals. This paper designs an Enhanced Climate Mitigation Actions and Safeguard (ECMAS) Indicator Framework and applies it to 188 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It assesses the implications of the quality of the information provided to improve clarity, transparency, and understanding of the NDCs. Findings show inconsistencies in terms used to describe emission reduction (ER) targets, unmet mitigation ambitions, and poorly elaborated safeguards. The study concludes that the information in the NDCs may jeopardize the sustainability and inclusiveness of net-zero ER targets and Paris Agreement goals, and the ECMAS Indicator Framework can help countries design and pursue appropriate pathways. Our findings recommend the need for policy guidelines to harmonize terminologies in NDCs, promotion of tools for enhancing net-zero ER targets and strengthening of institutional arrangements for elaborating and ensuring safeguards against socio-ecological inequalities are promoted and respected.