Abstract
Vehicle electrification stands as a pivotal catalyst for effecting a low-carbon transition within the transportation sector. End-of-life (EoL) battery treatment, which is mainly aimed at facilitating material recycling, provides considerable co-benefit in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study assesses the life-cycle GHG emissions from battery production, and examines the impact of three EoL battery treatment strategies: second use, regeneration, and recycling. Prospective scenarios of GHG emissions from electric vehicle battery production in China are further provided. The results show that under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions peak at 36 million tons in 2030, with 18 million tons for LFP and 18 million tons for NCM, and decrease to 11 million tons in 2060, with 4 million tons for LFP and 7 million tons for NCM. GHG emissions have more reduction potential as the collection rate increases and the proportion of different strategies applied changes. In a scenario with improved collection rates, GHG emissions would be reduced by 21% in 2060 compared to BAU. In a prioritized regeneration scenario, GHG emissions can be reduced by 32% in 2060, with 64% of lithium resources being supplied by regenerated batteries. In a prioritized second use scenario, GHG emissions can be reduced by 104% in 2060, which involves replacing 27 kilotons of lithium input and mitigating 13 million tons of GHG emissions related to the energy storage system. In light of these findings, we advocate for policy recommendations aimed at fostering the advancement of EoL battery treatment technologies and expediting the transformation of battery manufacturing processes towards carbon neutrality.