“If I were young…”: Increased Dropout Risk of Older University Students

Abstract

Dropout from higher education is a worldwide phenomenon with negative consequences for students, families, institutions, and society. As student numbers increase, students become more heterogeneous in terms of academic competencies, motivation, and trajectories, creating new challenges for promoting student persistence. Higher education can pose difficulties for students, increasing their vulnerability and risk of underachievement or dropout. This study involved 2843 first-year students of a Portuguese public university. The aim was to identify the variables that predict the decision to persist or drop out, using the regression tree method. The results show a good model that classifies students into four groups and reveals that the decision to drop out is different for traditional and non-traditional students, suggesting higher vulnerability of older students. Some reflections are offered about institutional practices.