THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MARITIME TRADE AND TRANSPORTATION: AN ESTIMATION OF THE MARITIME TRADE POST-COVID-19

Abstract

The coronavirus which emerged in December 2019 has affected the health of people and the whole world’s social and working life. This pandemic has impressed not only people’s health and life but also the world economy and especially maritime trade. International organizations and maritime authorities such as World Health Organization (WHO) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) have taken several measures and responses to mitigate the impact the Covid-19 on the maritime industry. Taking precautions, implementing protocols, and complying with guidelines at ships and ports which helps to protect the health of seafarers, passengers, port workers, and the general public have adversely affected the entire world economy and international trade. The study aims to identify the impacts of Covid-19 on maritime trade and transportation and to estimate world maritime trade for the years 2023, 2025, and 2030. In the study, a literature review was conducted, the impact of the Covid-19 on world maritime trade, maritime transportation, port calls, and shipping companies have been examined and the least squares method which is a form of regression analysis was used to estimate maritime trade and container throughput for these years. According to the result of the analysis, it is estimated that the world maritime trade will be 24,100.8 million tons in 2023, 25,163.2 million tons in 2025, and 27,819.2 million tons in 2030, and the estimated total container throughput at container ports in the world will be 906,104.1 thousand TEU in 2023, 959,701.5 thousand TEU in 2025 and 1,093,695 thousand TEU in 2030. It has been concluded that the total global maritime trade and amount of containers handled will increase gradually.