BACKGROUND
Wuhan, China was the original epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic.
OBJECTIVE
The goal of the current study is to understand the infection transmission dynamics before intervention measures were taken, such as issuing a lockdown for the city and other social distancing policies.
METHODS
Data and key events were searched through pubmed for medical literature and internet for Chinese government announcements and Chinese media reports. Epidemiological data including R0 and infection were calculated using data extracted from variety of data sources.
RESULTS
We established a timeline emphasizing evidence of human-to-human transmission. By January 1, 2020, Chinese authorities had been presented convincing evidence of human-to-human transmission; however, it was until January 20, 2020 that this information was shared with the public. Our study estimated that there would have been 10,989 total infected cases if interventions were taken on January 2, 2020, vs 239,875 cases when lockdown was put in place on January 23, 2020.
CONCLUSIONS
China’s withholding of key information about the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and its delayed response ultimately led to the largest public health crisis of this century and could have been avoided with earlier countermeasures.
CLINICALTRIAL
Not applicable.