BACKGROUND
China is the country with the most gallbladder and biliary diseases (GBDs) deaths.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this study was to analyze long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of GBDs in mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to make projections until 2030.
METHODS
Data on GBDs were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Population data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in this study.
RESULTS
The net drift of GBDs incidence was 0.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 1.00%) for men and 1.29% (95% CI: 1.22%, 1.35%) for women. The net drift for mortality was -1.57% (95% CI: -1.81%, -1.34%) -5.12% (95% CI: -5.38%, -4.86%) for men and -3.32% (95% CI: -3.55%, -3.10%) -6.90% (95% CI: -7.28%, -6.52%) for women. The risk of GBDs increased in the last 20 years in males but decreased in the last 5 years in females, and the risk of GBDs increased with birth cohort progression in females and in males after 2005. For mortality, both period and cohort effects showed a favorable trend (the mortality risk decreased). It is expected that the past trend in terms of increased incidence in males and decreased mortality for both sexes will continue, but the incidence of GBDs in females is expected to decrease in the future. An increasing proportion of elderly individuals are expected to develop GBDs and die.
CONCLUSIONS
In the past three decades, the incidence of GBDs has increased in both sexes, and the mortality rate has decreased. Except for the decreased incidence in females, the past trends will continue in the next decades. A higher proportion of elderly individuals are projected to suffer GBDs and die, thus GBDs in elderly individuals should receive more attention.
CLINICALTRIAL
Trial registration is not applicable in this study.