Enhanced machine learning prediction models for OSA patient screening: A Cloud-based mobile sleep medicine management platform (Preprint)

Abstract

Background: Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and mean heart rate during sleep were found to be risk factors for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and a variety of methods have been applied to predict the occurrence of OSA. Objective: This study aimed to develop and evaluate OSA prediction models using simple and accessible parameters, combined with multiple machine learning algorithms, and integrate them into a cloud-based mobile sleep medicine management platform for clinical use. Methods: The study data were obtained from the clinical data of 610 patients who underwent polysomnography (PSG) at the Sleep Medicine Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University between January 2021 and December 2022. The participants were randomly divided into a training–test group (80%) and an independent validation group (20%). The logistic regression, artificial neural network, naïve Bayes, support vector machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were used with age, gender, BMI, and mean heart rate during sleep as predictors to build a risk prediction model for moderate-to-severe OSA. To evaluate the performance of the models, we calculated the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), accuracy, recall, specificity, precision, and F1-score for the independent validation set. In addition, the calibration curve, decision curve, and clinical impact curve were generated to determine clinical usefulness. Results: Age, gender, BMI, and mean heart rate during sleep were significantly associated with OSA. The ANN model had the best efficacy compared with the other prediction algorithms. The AUROC, accuracy, recall, specificity, precision, F1-score, and Brier score were 0.804, 0.699, 0.865, 0.615, 0.532, 0.659, and 0.165, respectively, for the ANN model. The AUROCs for the LR, NB, SVM, RF, and DT models were 0.802, 0.797, 0.792, 0.784, and 0.704, respectively. Conclusions: The six models based on four simple and easily accessible parameters effectively predicted moderate-to-severe OSA in patients with PSG screening, with the ANN model having the best performance. These models can provide a reliable tool for early OSA diagnosis, and their integration into a cloud-based mobile sleep medicine management platform could improve clinical decision making.