Identifying Medicine Shortages With the Twitter Social Network: Retrospective Observational Study (Preprint)

Abstract

Early identification is critical for mitigating the impact of medicine shortages on patients. The internet, specifically social media, is an emerging source of health data.

This study aimed to explore whether a routine analysis of data from the Twitter social network can detect signals of a medicine shortage and serve as an early warning system and, if so, for which medicines or patient groups.

Medicine shortages between January 31 and December 1, 2019, were collected from the Dutch pharmacists’ society’s national catalog Royal Dutch Pharmacists Association (KNMP) Farmanco. Posts on these shortages were collected by searching for the name, the active pharmaceutical ingredient, or the first word of the brand name of the medicines in shortage. Posts were then selected based on relevant keywords that potentially indicated a shortage and the percentage of shortages with at least 1 post was calculated. The first posts per shortage were analyzed for their timing (median number of days, including the IQR) versus the national catalog, also stratified by disease and medicine characteristics. The content of the first post per shortage was analyzed descriptively for its reporting stakeholder and the nature of the post.

Of the 341 medicine shortages, 102 (29.9%) were mentioned on Twitter. Of these 102 shortages, 18 (5.3% of the total) were mentioned prior to or simultaneous to publication by KNMP Farmanco. Only 4 (1.2%) of these were mentioned on Twitter more than 14 days before. On average, posts were published with a median delay of 37 (IQR 7-81) days to publication by KNMP Farmanco. Shortages mentioned on Twitter affected a greater number of patients and lasted longer than those that were not mentioned. We could not conclusively relate either the presence or absence on Twitter to a disease area or route of administration of the medicine in shortage. The first posts on the 102 shortages were mainly published by patients (n=51, 50.0%) and health care professionals (n=46, 45.1%). We identified 8 categories of nature of content. Sharing personal experience (n=44, 43.1%) was the most common category.

The Twitter social network is not a suitable early warning system for medicine shortages. Twitter primarily echoes already-known information rather than spreads new information. However, Twitter or potentially any other social media platform provides the opportunity for future qualitative research in the increasingly important field of medicine shortages that investigates how a larger population of patients is affected by shortages.