Intersection of Perceived COVID-19 Risk, Preparedness, and Preventive Health Behaviors: Latent Class Segmentation Analysis (Preprint)

Abstract

COVID-19 risk perception is a factor that influences the pandemic spread. Understanding the potential behavioral responses to COVID-19, including preparedness and adoption of preventive measures, can inform interventions to curtail its spread.

We assessed self-perceived and latent class analysis (LCA)–based risks of COVID-19 and their associations with preparedness, misconception, information gap, and preventive practices among residents of a densely populated city in Nigeria.

We used data from a cross-sectional survey conducted among residents (N=140) of Onitsha, Nigeria, in March 2020, before the government-mandated lockdown. Using an iterative expectation-maximization algorithm, we applied LCA to systematically segment participants into the most likely distinct risk clusters. Furthermore, we used bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models to determine the associations among knowledge, attitude, preventive practice, perceived preparedness, misconception, COVID-19 information gap, and self-perceived and LCA-based COVID-19 risks.

Most participants (85/140, 60.7%) had good knowledge and did not perceive themselves as at risk of contracting COVID-19. Three-quarters of the participants (102/137, 74.6%; <i>P</i>&lt;.001) experienced COVID-19–related information gaps, while 62.9% (88/140; <i>P</i>=.04) of the participants had some misconceptions about the disease. Conversely, most participants (93/140, 66.4%; <i>P</i>&lt;.001) indicated that they were prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. The majority of the participants (94/138, 68.1%; <i>P</i>&lt;.001) self-perceived that they were not at risk of contracting COVID-19 compared to 31.9% (44/138) who professed to be at risk of contracting COVID-19. Using the LCA, we identified 3 distinct risk clusters (<i>P</i>&lt;.001), namely, prudent or low-risk takers, skeptics or high-risk takers, and carefree or very high-risk takers with prevalence rates (probabilities of cluster membership that represent the prevalence rate [γ_c]) of 47.5% (95% CI 40%-55%), 16.2% (95% CI 11.4%-20.9%), and 36.4% (95% CI 28.8%-43.9%), respectively. We recorded a significantly negative agreement between self-perceived risk and LCA-based segmentation of COVID-19 risk (κ=–0.218, SD 0.067; <i>P</i>=.01). Knowledge, attitude, and perceived need for COVID-19 information were significant predictors of COVID-19 preventive practices among the Onitsha city residents.

The clustering patterns highlight the impact of modifiable risk behaviors on COVID-19 preventive practices, which can provide strong empirical support for health prevention policies. Consequently, clusters with individuals at high risk of contracting COVID-19 would benefit from multicomponent interventions delivered in diverse settings to improve the population-based response to the pandemic.