Fast Prediction of Deterioration and Death Risk in Patients With Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using Vital Signs and Admission History: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

Abstract

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has 2 courses with different options for medical treatment: the acute exacerbation phase and the stable phase. Stable patients can use the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) to guide treatment strategies. However, GOLD could not classify and guide the treatment of acute exacerbation as acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is a complex process.

This paper aimed to propose a fast severity assessment and risk prediction approach in order to strengthen monitoring and medical interventions in advance.

The proposed method uses a classification and regression tree (CART) and had been validated using the AECOPD inpatient’s medical history and first measured vital signs at admission that can be collected within minutes. We identified 552 inpatients with AECOPD from February 2011 to June 2018 retrospectively and used the classifier to predict the outcome and prognosis of this hospitalization.

The overall accuracy of the proposed CART classifier was 76.2% (83/109 participants) with 95% CI 0.67-0.84. The precision, recall, and F-measure for the mild AECOPD were 76% (50/65 participants), 82% (50/61 participants), and 0.79, respectively, and those with severe AECOPD were 75% (33/44 participants), 68% (33/48 participants), and 0.72, respectively.

This fast prediction CART classifier for early exacerbation detection could trigger the initiation of timely treatment, thereby potentially reducing exacerbation severity and recovery time and improving the patients’ health.