Real-World Survival Comparisons Between Radiotherapy and Surgery for Metachronous Second Primary Lung Cancer and Predictions of Lung Cancer–Specific Outcomes Using Machine Learning: Population-Based Study (Preprint)

Abstract

Metachronous second primary lung cancer (MSPLC) is not that rare but is seldom studied.

We aim to compare real-world survival outcomes between different surgery strategies and radiotherapy for MSPLC.

This retrospective study analyzed data collected from patients with MSPLC between 1988 and 2012 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching (PSM) analyses and machine learning were performed to compare variables between patients with MSPLC. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method and were compared using log-rank tests.

A total of 2451 MSPLC patients were categorized into the following treatment groups: 864 (35.3%) received radiotherapy, 759 (31%) underwent surgery, 89 (3.6%) had surgery plus radiotherapy, and 739 (30.2%) had neither treatment. After PSM, 470 pairs each for radiotherapy and surgery were generated. The surgery group had significantly better survival than the radiotherapy group (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) and the untreated group (563 pairs; <i>P</i>&lt;.001). Further analysis revealed that both wedge resection (85 pairs; <i>P</i>=.004) and lobectomy (71 pairs; <i>P</i>=.002) outperformed radiotherapy in overall survival for MSPLC patients. Machine learning models (extreme gradient boosting, random forest classifier, adaptive boosting) demonstrated high predictive performance based on area under the curve (AUC) values. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis identified 9 significant variables impacting cancer-specific survival, emphasizing surgery’s consistent influence across 1 year to 10 years. These variables encompassed age at diagnosis, sex, year of diagnosis, radiotherapy of initial primary lung cancer (IPLC), primary site, histology, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy of MPSLC. Competing risk analysis highlighted lower mortality for female MPSLC patients (hazard ratio [HR]=0.79, 95% CI 0.71-0.87) and recent IPLC diagnoses (HR=0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85), while radiotherapy for IPLC increased mortality (HR=1.31, 95% CI 1.16-1.50). Surgery alone had the lowest cancer-specific mortality (HR=0.83, 95% CI 0.81-0.85), with sublevel resection having the lowest mortality rate among the surgical approaches (HR=0.26, 95% CI 0.21-0.31). The findings provide valuable insights into the factors that influence cumulative cancer-specific mortality.

Surgical resections such as wedge resection and lobectomy confer better survival than radiation therapy for MSPLC, but radiation can be a valid alternative for the treatment of MSPLC.