Models Predicting Hospital Admission of Adult Patients Utilizing Prehospital Data: Systematic Review Using PROBAST and CHARMS (Preprint)

Abstract

Emergency department boarding and hospital exit block are primary causes of emergency department crowding and have been conclusively associated with poor patient outcomes and major threats to patient safety. Boarding occurs when a patient is delayed or blocked from transitioning out of the emergency department because of dysfunctional transition or bed assignment processes. Predictive models for estimating the probability of an occurrence of this type could be useful in reducing or preventing emergency department boarding and hospital exit block, to reduce emergency department crowding.

The aim of this study was to identify and appraise the predictive performance, predictor utility, model application, and model utility of hospital admission prediction models that utilized prehospital, adult patient data and aimed to address emergency department crowding.

We searched multiple databases for studies, from inception to September 30, 2019, that evaluated models predicting adult patients’ imminent hospital admission, with prehospital patient data and regression analysis. We used PROBAST (Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modeling Studies) to critically assess studies.

Potential biases were found in most studies, which suggested that each model’s predictive performance required further investigation. We found that select prehospital patient data contribute to the identification of patients requiring hospital admission. Biomarker predictors may add superior value and advantages to models. It is, however, important to note that no models had been integrated with an information system or workflow, operated independently as electronic devices, or operated in real time within the care environment. Several models could be used at the site-of-care in real time without digital devices, which would make them suitable for low-technology or no-electricity environments.

There is incredible potential for prehospital admission prediction models to improve patient care and hospital operations. Patient data can be utilized to act as predictors and as data-driven, actionable tools to identify patients likely to require imminent hospital admission and reduce patient boarding and crowding in emergency departments. Prediction models can be used to justify earlier patient admission and care, to lower morbidity and mortality, and models that utilize biomarker predictors offer additional advantages.