Predicting populations of older people with limitations in activities of daily living using data of the National Health Examination Survey 2014 (Preprint)

Author:

Nontarak JiraluckORCID,Bundhamcharoen Kanitta,Prasitsiriphon OrawanORCID,Aekplakorn Wichai

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The extended life span has led to an increase in the number of older people and an increase in the prevalence of disability among people over 60 years of age.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine the association of sociodemographic variables and health status the limitation of activities of daily living (ADL) among people aged 60 and older and to project the number of older people with limitations of ADL among the elderly living in Thailand.

METHODS

Data from the Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) in 2014 were analyzed. This cross-sectional study was carried out among a randomly selected, representative population of people aged 60 and older living in Thailand. The ADL limitation was assessed using the basic ADL. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify the factors related to ADLs and the predictive probabilities of variables were examined to project the number of ADL limitations by different levels of limitations, age groups and sex.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates of ADL limitation were 9.2% for mild level and 19.3% for moderate to severe level. Females were more likely to have ADL limitation than males for both mild and moderated to severe ADL limitation. Both mild and moderate to severe limitation, increasing age, having diabetes, having low physical activities and obtaining education were associated with ADL limitations. Over the next 20 years, the predicted number of older populations with ADL limitation were more likely among females compared with males (20.3 vs. 15.1 million). The number of older people with ADL limitation showed a linear increasing pattern for both males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the number of older Thais gradually increased over the next 20 years. This study found that the number of those with moderate to severe limitation would increase about three-fold than the volume at present. Our findings suggest the strengthening of health promotion and diseases prevention programs, to mitigate the consequences of chronic diseases in Thai older people.

Publisher

JMIR Publications Inc.

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